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About Jerry
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Jerry Merkin has spent more than 40 years in business-to-business publishing with such titles as FLOORING, HOTEL & MOTEL MANAGEMENT and HOTEL BUSINESS. Now retired from publishing, Jerry devotes much of his time to consulting for GLM, LLC, specifically on the International Hotel/Motel and Restaurant Show.
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Jerry's Blog
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Aug
11
Written by:
Jerry Merkin
8/11/2009
 Over the past several months, I’ve become quite agitated with the very bearish comments about the hotel industry and its future prospects considering the current recession that has overtaken the industry. The comments are mostly coming from industry insiders who seem to me, at least, anxious to present an extremely negative view as to when the industry can look to recovery. Early on, when the recession overtook the hospitality sector in mid 2008, the prevailing view was that the industry would see a return northward in 2010. Some, me included, saw it happening in the fourth quarter of 2009.
But as the downturn deepened and foreclosures loomed, many of the self-styled prognosticators started pushing the start of recovery further out – some even saying we will see no recovery until 2015 based solely on Smith Travel numbers. After 35 years of covering the industry in my editorial roles, I held on to my belief that the fourth quarter would see the start of the return and I was able to look at the numbers as only one aspect of the mess hoteliers find themselves in. Like the “bears”, I have been just as vocal, but my current listeners tended to be very limited. And on occasion, I was asked why don’t you write a blog?
Then in June, I attended the NYU Hotel Investment Conference. After hearing very few positive reports about the two day event despite very positive comments at the IREFAC seminar, I decided to spell out my reasoning, which looked beyond the numbers and took into consideration the “deal players” and their potential impact. My overall belief is that the worst of the recession is behind us in the United States.
Everyone knows there is a lot of money on the sidelines just waiting for the bottom to be reached. At NYU, the sharp dealmakers said we are almost there, and with some happenings over the past few weeks, there is every indication that we are now bumping along at the bottom. As we approach September, the deals will happen in earnest.
Meanwhile, the industry “bears” point to the sizeable and growing foreclosures as proof that this hill can’t be climbed anytime soon. Add to that Fed Chairman Bernanke’s recent comment to Congress that the problems in the commercial sector can derail the recovery. Taking note of this, the veteran hotelier dealmakers are concerned that Treasury could attempt a RTC-like strategy to rid us of the “toxic” assets that took us out of the Savings and Loan crisis in the ’90’s recession. The major players really do not want to see this type of repeat performance that would remove many “trophy” properties into other portfolios. Increasingly, we are going to see very concerted efforts to get these problem assets out of trouble by either buying them outright or assuming the mortgages or debt.
Just last week, Marriott announced their plan to expand by taking over the operation of hotels from competitors unable to pay or refinance debt. According to comments attributed to Marriott CFO Carl Berquist, the chain plans to add 110,000 rooms - including 30,000 this year – to its current total. They are very optimistic for 2010, he added. While the serious doubters will say that the Marriott effort can, at best, be limited given the rising number of foreclosures, Marriott has at least two REITS that they can depend on to support their efforts.
Moreover, Marriott also can look for help among some of it's prime management/development operations. Just as I am writing this, Harrell Hospitality announced a strategic relationship with London & Pacific Healthcare, Inc., to "finance, acquire and manage hotel properties and specialized hospitality projects."
Just as the Marriott news was starting to sink in, Hyatt Corp. announced an IPO to raise $1.15 billion to shore up its finances and fund acquisitions. I’m certain this is not the end of the “bailouts” from some of the major brands as they now consider their options.
Furthermore, in the weeks following the NYU Conference, there are other positive signs that my contention about a fourth quarter upturn seems to have feet. Barry Sternlicht predicted that the up cycle was going to end shortly, three ALIS conferences ago while interviewed before an audience of hoteliers who were giddy with joy over industry stats. But the audience was not hearing him. Barry and his Starwood Capital, prepared by pulling back on its development plans while others tried to guess what “inning” the industry was in, badly missing the downturn. Sternlicht is actively moving to energize his hotel activity by first buying the worldwide franchising Golden Tulip Hotels. On top of this, Starwood Property Trust (SPT) filed an amended registration statement with the SEC for an initial public offering. SPT is a newly-organized Maryland Corp focused on original investing, financing and managing commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate debt investments, including CMBS. This obviously gives them an opportunity to add quality assets to their reviving portfolio. And as I'm writing this comes news from Bloomberg.com that he has raised $810 million in this effort.
Not to be overlooked in this recovery effort is Blackstone, who has two major hotel groups - Hilton Hotels and LaQuinta. Blackstone finished raising $4.3 billion for its Blackstone Real Estate Partners Europe lll fund. This will obviously enable them to acquire property globally for its Hilton portfolio, taking advantage of the many opportunities around the world, thereby positively impacting Hilton. But it keeps getting more interesting. Bayview Asset Management, partially owned by Blackstone, has formed Bayview Mortgage Capital to pursue distressed real estate loans from banks from other lenders and investors, including of course commercial real estate which can fit into the Hilton or LXR portfolios. Bayview Mortgage is putting together an IPO to raise up to $500 million. On the unsubstantiated side, newspaper reports out of Europe have Blackstone looking at options on its huge debt from the Hilton buy coming due in four years. Some are predicting asset sales but this has been denied. A swift turnaround in the economy could solve the problem with assets that have been written down.
And if you dig deeper, you find private equity firm Apollo Management doing the same thing with a planned IPO. The new COO at Apollo happens to be Henry Silverman, former Cendant Chairman, who has a long track record in hotel investing and even financed the formation of AAHOA. It has often been stated that once you have dabbled in hotel real estate, you can’t resist going back.
And in some back rooms on Wall Street, there is even a hint that the greatest deal maker in the hotel industry, Stephen Bollenbach, is casting more than an eye toward the hotel sector. Among his many current directorships is one that catches the eye - as a director at troubled AIG, which he helped keep from going the way of Lehman. Steve just announced he is not going to stand for re-election to that Board, and rumors abound that he will find it difficult to just be an observer as the hotel industry fights to reinvent itself. His fingerprints are on too many major deals.
Added to all this high level deal making is the huge amount of money sitting out there in opportunity funds, which according to analysts, will start flowing into action the second half of this year. It has been estimated that this amounts to $93 billion for investment in distressed commercial real estate and debt opportunities. A very large percent of this private equity is expected to wind up in the hotel arena because the prospects here are expected to be better than most other real estate categories. If, as expected, most of this comes to fruition in the second half, it can have a major impact on decreasing the number of high value foreclosures and push the hotel industry’s recovery along faster than most expected. Being a realist as well as a “bull”, it will still take a few years to wash this downturn out of our hairs. In the meantime, expect the incidence of renovation work to expand rapidly in the second half going into 2010.
In my consulting assignment for GLM on the International Hotel/Motel and Restaurant Show in November, we are seeing very early interest by potential attendees with purchasing and asset management titles to attend this year’s event with shopping lists in hand. Normally we do not see this volume of interest this early. In my next blog, I would like to offer up the parts of the NYU Conference that I found to be very significant in providing insight into the industry after the downturn.
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