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About Jerry
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Jerry Merkin has spent more than 40 years in business-to-business publishing with such titles as FLOORING, HOTEL & MOTEL MANAGEMENT and HOTEL BUSINESS. Now retired from publishing, Jerry devotes much of his time to consulting for GLM, LLC, specifically on the International Hotel/Motel and Restaurant Show.
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Jerry's Blog
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Sep
30
Written by:
Jerry Merkin
9/30/2009
 A few days ago, I glanced at the front page of the Wall Street Journal and said WOW, history does repeat itself. The headline "CIC looks to pile cash into US Real Estate.”
For those of you not familiar with CIC, it is the China Investment Corp and the talks they have reportedly held recently were with several equity fund managers about potential investments in beaten down commercial property assets, mostly mortgage securities backed by hotels, office buildings and other commercial properties. Moreover, according to the Journal, CIC is also considering buying ownership interests in commercial buildings, obviously including hotels.
It was the last major crisis, the Savings and Loan mess, that saw the Japanese dripping with cash reserves, come in and buy these toxic assets, especially hotels, and almost buying out a major brand, stopped short by Steven Bollenbach who, in a much criticized deal, saved the day for Marriott by splitting the company in two--the assets in newly formed Host Marriott, and the management in Marriott, thereby stopping any takeover deal. This also set the stage for many other hotel chains to rid themselves of their ownership assets. The Japanese did wind up with many hotel assets in this period, practically most of the major Hawaiian hotels and lost most of it in the years following as market dynamics changed here and in Japan.
Meanwhile, according to the Journal, the CIC is considering investing through one of the US government's bailout programs, the Treasury's Public-Private Investment Program, known as PPIP. This program, the Journal points out, is intended to rid banks of toxic mortgage securities by enticing investors to buy these assets with financing by the US government. Considering that China is sitting on an estimated $300 billion investment fund, that's a lot of real estate to be removed from bank portfolios and quiet those who are crying, sure this recession may be over, but just wait till next year when the commercial assets go critical, then we will be back in a crisis mode.
While the Chinese have been investing in assets around the world, the investment in US commercial assets, according to the Journal report, the PPIP program is very appealing to Beijing; the US Treasury will co-invest with funds that buy toxic mortgages that have been red-flagged on bank's balance sheets. Here, the Treasury and CIC would be partners in borrowing money from the US government to buy troubled mortgages. Can you imagine the outcry on this from the conservatives who would rather see everything unravel than helping them buy our assets with taxpayer dollars, even though the move will lift a burden from another threat on our economy? There has been a lot of criticism from investors who are anxious about the red tape associated in investing in a government sponsored program. According to people in the know, Jones Lang LaSalle has had some bad experience in trying to navigate PPIP restrictions for large investors and the "red tape" involved has caused many of these investors to back off.
However, in wake of the Journal report, many industry insiders feel that the government will be anxious to work with the Chinese to bring them in as minority investors to forestall the Capitol Hill outbursts. Moreover, as further pointed out by the Journal, there has been a push by real estate executives to have Congress amend tax law to encourage overseas capital to flow into US real estate, thus helping to prevent further declines in property values. There are some executives in the hotel arena who feel an amended tax law could spur further interest from equity groups to be more aggressive in the PPIP program which, coupled with the Chinese effort and other foreign capital, end the uncertainty engulfing the commercial asset market that the road is really clear now for a return to positive territory sooner than expected. Obviously, the fourth quarter of this year is going to set the stage for a more positive outlook as we enter 2010.
Already Price Waterhouse and Smith Travel Research are showing more upside in 4th quarter numbers in light of an improving economy and corporations being a bit less restrictive in their business travel policies and if the economy shows further improvement heading into 2010, better numbers can be expected next year only if heavy discounting ceases and the industry attempts to start driving its Revpar up. Certainly not an easy task given the severity of the recession. But it has to be done. I get the feeling as I'm talking with attendees registering for the IH/M&RS in November that they are anxious to noodle the current situation with their peers and try to return to health as a united group, not going wild with amenities but hoping to make their staffs more conscious that better service is the best way to overcome the forced cutbacks of the recession.
We have a long way to go up the ladder and if we do it together, we can all benefit together.
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