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About Jerry
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Jerry Merkin has spent more than 40 years in business-to-business publishing with such titles as FLOORING, HOTEL & MOTEL MANAGEMENT and HOTEL BUSINESS. Now retired from publishing, Jerry devotes much of his time to consulting for GLM, LLC, specifically on the International Hotel/Motel and Restaurant Show.
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Jerry's Blog
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Oct
30
Written by:
Jerry Merkin
10/30/2009
 During my morning drive time, the business news presenter on my favorite radio station has used the term "Reset" to talk about the world we will come to know, post recession. Bottom line, he is saying that the world we know has changed dramatically and very possibly forever. Every time he does one of these deals, I think about our hotel industry and how the game changes almost daily.
For instance, just about everyone is certain the recession is over and very few accept the fact that the return to recovery, whatever that will be, will not be accomplished in one year, maybe two, and more likely three. But within this road to recovery there are areas of hope that will make the road ahead less painful for those who understand how to work the opportunities presented to us.
A week ago, the dollar was down as related to other currencies, and our export picture looked brighter and there was hope for defusing the unemployment picture, gasoline inventory was up to record highs and the visions of travelers on the road danced before our eyes. But just as I’m writing this, the price of crude oil has increased to new highs for this year and analysts are predicting higher gasoline prices again, and fewer travelers on the road.
But what about development, specifically development of hotels and resorts. We were told early in the bailout of the big banks that we would see credit once again become available. Guess again, those toxic commercial assets that the banks hold are ticking time bombs, and the big banks do not want to find themselves in need of bailouts once again. So opening the loan spigot has been delayed. Last week the Obama administration saw a way out and said they would pursue making TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) funds available to small businesses. And if that happens, the smaller banks who do service a great number of our hotel owners and developers would be in a position to open the credit gate, unless of course, they choose to use the help to build their reserves.
So where does that leave us as an industry, going into 2010 looking for a bounce. I do have my opinions, but to be certain I made a bunch of calls to owners and vendors. Essentially, the luxury hotel market will continue to stagnate, possibly for three more years. But, mid-market will be the vehicle that will ignite the industry in 2010, most probably by mid-year. And it makes sense since the smaller banks, in many instances should open up here. From the developer/owner perspective, they can make more money on well performing mid-market properties, who stand to pick up a larger share of business travel.
As far as the mid-market itself, there is a lot of great development product out there with more coming on. Look for a new emphasis by the brands to keep upgrading their offerings in this category. And with a TARP program in place for small businesses, this could percolate. At least it is a high possibility.
Furthermore, and not to be overlooked is the very real possibility of a tourism promotion program that shortly will be unleashed by the United States. It has passed the Senate and looks positive for the rest of the way. This could be the saving grace for luxury market properties now suffering. And quite a number of REITS with luxury portfolios are already making big renovation plans for next year.
Finally, there remains a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to jump in and grab off the failing assets. Very quietly, as some of the multi-unit owners I talked to confided that they expect to add portfolios to their groups before the year is out. It is just a waiting game at present, and all the negativity out there has most of us on edge.
Where the industry goes in 2010 will be a hot topic of discussion next week during the International Hotel/Motel & Restaurant Show in New York. The market kicks off Saturday, November 7th with the Hospitality Leadership Conference. Plan to attend the presentations and network with your peers to get a first-hand picture from the grass roots where everything appears to be heading. You are shortchanging your business and yourself by not taking advantage of this opportunity. Plus the government affairs presentation by the AHLA is worth the price of admission alone. See you in New York!
For more information about the International Hotel/Motel & Restaurant Show, visit our website at www.ihmrs.com.
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