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About Jerry
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Jerry Merkin has spent more than 40 years in business-to-business publishing with such titles as FLOORING, HOTEL & MOTEL MANAGEMENT and HOTEL BUSINESS. Now retired from publishing, Jerry devotes much of his time to consulting for GLM, LLC, specifically on the International Hotel/Motel and Restaurant Show.
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Jerry's Blog
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Feb
25
Written by:
Jerry Merkin
2/25/2010
 I call the current “recession” we find ourselves immersed in as intractable. There just does not appear to be any game plan that can adequately address the underlying problem: the growing number of foreclosures is overshadowing any positive sign that we are finally on a straight road to recovery.
Sure we can look at some positive numbers in the past few months that show some improvement in occupancy, but it comes at the cost of further erosion in RevPar. The basic problem is that this downturn is unlike any we have previously seen. We live in an interconnected world now and distant problems not of our own making can take their toll on our businesses here. Witness the recent scare resulting from a failing economy in Greece. In previous downturns the actions we took here were sufficient to put our economy and business on a recovery trail.
And despite reports from our industry analysts, who have been saying for many months that the transaction problems will soon be addressed by private equity, and that the luxury sector will shortly reemerge as business travel comes back this year, the results continue to be more of the same. Yes, there have been some limited transactions, but the foreclosures are coming faster than the needed sales of the poorly performing properties. Problem is the sellers are hoping to get a better return on their investments, and the buyers are looking for better deals. And the lenders dig in and hope that time will lessen their losses in an improving economy. And as I talk with many of those I know in the financial and brokerage area of our business, it is clear there are some more scary failure deals in the cards that will put even more stress on the market.
And to those who point to discounted RevPar as the underlying problem in returning to
health, preaching the “hold your rates” advice, it is easy for those preaching this on the sidelines, but in fact, if you are not being competitive in these times, owners might as well close the doors and return the keys to lenders. When I see the likes of Beanie Baby Ty Warner being scared out of the market for some of his properties, and the pressure being put on other owners of luxury properties by their brand management to sit tight, when their best customers are adapting to less than luxury lodging, the easy answers are just not enough to counter this dogged downturn.
And as I write this, this morning, the US Senate has taken note of the lack of action to address the problems in the commercial construction market and has asked the Federal Reserve to deal with the problem. The time for action is here and if this keeps going on the whole recovery is at risk. My suggestion here, for all its worth, we need to resurrect the Resolution Trust Corp.
For those in our industry who are not familiar with the RTC, this was an government-owned asset company charged with liquidating real estate assets during the savings and loan crisis of the 1980‘s Basically the RTC packaged pools of toxic assets and had private investor groups bid on purchasing these groups. The mess in the hotel portion of the market was resolved and these assets were passed around to buyers to readdress, the recovery was able to go on in earnest. Last year, I was against a return of the RTC, saying that the amount of equity out there could in fast execution solve the mess that bedevils this industry. But as I sit and watch the cat and mouse games being played, I am of the opinion that this current stagnation could go on indefinitely, which I’m certain no one wants.
Hopefully the Fed, which has not been as aggressive in the commercial market problems as it has been in residential arena, will see that we need to deal with the problem now. Maybe, even the threat of a renewed RTC, will bring about a more aggressive deal making situation. If these measures are put into play, we can still salvage the second half the year and set the stage for a strong recovery in 2011.
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High end hotel executives must consider the current economic situation permanent and adapt their respective operations to a more value oriented posture. Evaluate the cost of all amenties and weigh that against the value percieved by the consumer.
Of course most hotels should also look at what they are doing with their food and beverage operations as in many cases a great opportunity to create cash flow remains under-developed.
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