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About Jerry
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Jerry Merkin has spent more than 40 years in business-to-business publishing with such titles as FLOORING, HOTEL & MOTEL MANAGEMENT and HOTEL BUSINESS. Now retired from publishing, Jerry devotes much of his time to consulting for GLM, LLC, specifically on the International Hotel/Motel and Restaurant Show.
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Jerry's Blog
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Apr
15
Written by:
Jerry Merkin
4/15/2010
 For those of you who were waiting for my early April “blog”, I offer an apology for the delay and thank you for being patient. As has been my approach during this critical period for the hotel industry, I have been trying to address the problems of foreclosure and bankruptcies that threaten to extend the “recession” for the hospitality industry.
The road to recovery has not been based on a lack of funding. There are plenty of funds that have been built for a rainy day that remain unspent, except for Barry Sternlicht and his Starwood Capital. So, sensing that there were imminent moves, rather than write another blog of hope, I decided to wait a week and offer my audience some “red meat” After all, I do put myself in the camp of the believers that the second half of this year is sure to set the industry on the long winding road to recovery
The week started out with Smith Travel Research, offering an upward revision of its pre-2010 forecast. Saying that because hotel occupancy numbers now look better than previously forecast, STR predicts that occupancy will increase 1.9 percent this year to 55.8 per cent. The previous forecast was that occupancy would remain flat year- to- year. As far as ADR, this was also revised to a slight uptick, again a step in the right direction.
Then in rapid succession, we were hit with two big deals--the Los Angeles Marriott Downtown, with 469 rooms was purchased by a Chinese company out of foreclose. The purchaser, Shenzen New World Group Co., also committed to a substantial renovation. This deal, in my opinion, sets the stage for further action by other Chinese companies to make the expected moves into purchasing hotel assets.
Then over in China, the expected purchase of Interstate Hotels and Resorts by Thayer Lodging and Jin Jiang Hotels advanced to the signing stage, signally not only a new global partnership, but heralding the a step towards enhanced Chinese tourism here.
And as we got further into the week, here comes another new buyer, this one out of Seattle, who plucked one of the big prizes out of the foreclosure market, the St. Regis Monarch Beach Resort.. Commenting on its surprise move into the hospitality market, the CEO of WaHoldings explained “The hotel industry is in a very difference place today than a year ago and there is strong evidence that fundamentals are beginning to rebound.”
Which brings us to Barry Sternlicht, who obviously saw this movement weeks ago and acted on it with multiple funds that he has been building, and practicing his first in and first out theories. As a speaker at the Alis conference in January 2007, he warned that bubble was about to burst, but his comments mostly fell on deaf ears as business was still setting new highs in occupancy and ADR. And now in 2010, here is back dealing before the rest of the market realizes the opportunity.
Sternlicht announced a plan to bring Extended Stay Hotels out of bankruptcy and purchased loans from failed Chicago-based lender Corus Bankshares, beating out an offer from Centerbridge, a new private equity firm. Meanwhile, Cenerbridge this past week came back with a new offer that topped Sternlicht’s. So far no response on ESH from Starwood, except his moves on a candidate for bankruptcy, Las Vegas Riviera Holdings, and the distressed Carlyle Hotel in New York.
Other news of note this past week is the move by conservative hotel owner and builder, the Hardin Group, to involved itself in the quest for troubled hotel assets, mostly three and four star properties, and a big sigh of relief from Hilton headquarters in McLean, VA that they have successfully renegotiated their debt coming due shortly.
While space restrictions prevent me from further listing other positive events of the past week, I don’t want to give you the impression that we are free and clear. The fact is that it is still tough out there for those seeking financing, and given that the banks will continue to hoard money, there does not appear to be a general rush to recovery. A few years are going to be needed to get us back to where we were, but we can continue to see the positives coming at us at a greater rate in the coming months, especially as these mammoth equity funds start to be employed, and more foreign equity comes in at a rapid rate.
You are going to have to put in twice as much effort to master the upturn as you did the
downturn.
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