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About Jerry
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Jerry Merkin has spent more than 40 years in business-to-business publishing with such titles as FLOORING, HOTEL & MOTEL MANAGEMENT and HOTEL BUSINESS. Now retired from publishing, Jerry devotes much of his time to consulting for GLM, LLC, specifically on the International Hotel/Motel and Restaurant Show.
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Jerry's Blog
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Oct
25
Written by:
Jerry Merkin
10/25/2010
 After covering in the hotel industry for many years, I have seen a few recessions, but nothing that compares to the current downturn. Trying to make sense of it all is impossible.
One day, you have everyone believing the worst is behind us, and the next morning you wake to news that spins everything backward. It could be stubborn unemployment numbers, European debt issues or poor monthly retail sales that takes everything back into minus territory.
All the time you hear about the “vultures” lying in wait with swollen equity funds looking for the right time to swoop down on the prey: trophy hotel properties underwater with lenders believing that we are at the bottom, and that recovery is upon us.
And through all the machinations--no funding, the “fundamentals” are finally right, continuing foreclosures, and rising occupancies--there is no real relief in sight. The vultures are holding out and the lenders are up to the challenge. Every other day we hear the so called experts saying we’ve turned the corner or saying it is going to get worse. Some now call for the industry malaise to linger into 2016 and beyond.
I am firm believer that this current downturn is so interwoven with world wide politics and domestic maneuvering that no one, from our Federal monetarists to our industry specialists, has any idea of where we are really headed.
Where do we really see it going? I was one of those who said this spring that the third and fourth quarters should see a mild return to the long road back. Living in New York, you don’t get the proper perspective on what is reality for the hotel industry across the country. New York took a what would be considered a mild hit, and this spring and summer roared back with occupancy and rate rebounding to almost where they had been in the industry’s best years, even with more properties in place. Walk through Times Square and you are convinced that this recession over. New York, however, is an anomaly, up there with London and Paris as a must-visit destination. But as you go around the rest of the country, it remains for the most part tough sledding.
So here we are in October and despite the gloominess of many, there are positive signs for the industry. Financing is being made through traditional lenders: in its third quarter report, JP Morgan noted that middle market loans rose three percent to $33.3 billion. We are starting to get some positive occupancy and RevPar news from many problem areas of the country like Florida, Boston, Dallas and San Francisco to name a few. And, the cat and mouse game being played by lenders and the equity funds could catch a break with those lenders desiring resolution by year-end.
Finally, the Small Business Relief Package, passed by Congress before recessing for mid-term elections, promises to not only break the funding logjam with a multi-billon dollar loan package through SBA, but also to provide meaningful tax credits to owners who make capital expenditures by year-end. That spending impetus has raised beliefs among many that the International Hotel/Motel & Restaurant Show in November will see owners make significant purchases at the Show, especially on stalled renovation projects, in order to realize the tax credit.
Speaking of the IHMRS, please plan to attend the Hospitality Leadership Forum (HLF) on Saturday, November 13th. The HLF program includes terrific qualitative and quantitative general sessions on projections and trends for 2011, and breakout sessions on focused topics such as technology, boutique hotels, franchising and sales and marketing.
I’ll be there trying to make sense of where we are on the road to recovery. Please join me and let me hear your thoughts and ideas.
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What happened to trurth in lending? Back during the RTC bailout.The banks could not carry bad debt on the books for over two years. Us old enough to remember how important workouts were for them and experienced hotel professionals who had excellent track records in hotel asset management and operations were able to perform magic on several properties for work outs. It seems that consolidators and sponsors etc... have been kicking the can down the street and realistic opportunities to buy existing properties at a fair price (not bottom fishing) seems to not exist.
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